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MARKETING AND See also:SUPPLY
In the days of slave-grown See also:cotton, the See also:American planters, being men of See also:wealth farming on a large See also:scale, consigned the bulk Moving of their produce as a See also:rule See also:direct to the ports. Now,
the however, a large proportion of the See also:crop is sold to See also:local See also:harvest to See also:store-keepers who See also:transfer it to exporting firms in
heports.
neighbouring cities. The cultivators, whether owners of the plantations, as is usual in some districts, or tenants, as is customary in others, are financed as a rule by See also:commission agents. The decline of " spot " sales at the ports, partly but not entirely in consequence of the See also:appearance of the small See also:cultivator, has proceeded steadily. See also:Hammond' has constructed a table from See also:information supplied by the secretaries of the cotton exchanges at New See also:York, See also:Charleston, See also:Savannah, See also:Mobile, New See also: . 19 See also:Shreveport, La. . 256 See also:Selma, See also:Ala. . 126 Little See also:Rock, See also:Ark.. 219 See also:Montgomery, Ala. 211 See also:Helena, Ark.. 91 Eufaula, Ala. 29 See also:Vicksburg, See also:Miss. . See also:loo See also:Columbus, Ga. . 74 Columbus, Miss. . 57 See also:Macon, Ga. . 87 See also:Natchez, Miss. . 76 See also:Albany, Ga. 35 I Cotton Culture and the Cotton See also:Trade, p. 298. See also:Atlanta, Ga. 134 See also:Houston, Tex. . 2,423 See also:Rome, Ga. . 72 See also:Meridian, Miss. . 133 See also:Augusta, Ga. 446 See also:Cincinnati, See also:Ohio . 167 See also:Columbia, S.C. 68 Yazoo See also:City, Miss. 65 See also:Newberry, S.C. 17 See also:Charlotte, N.C. 2I See also:Total . 6712
See also:Raleigh, N.C. 19
St See also: . 10,295 62 34 Crop . . 13,565 Galveston and Savannah have risen considerably in relative importance of See also:late years. Before the See also:Civil See also:War each planter would have his own See also:gin-See also:house. Now, however, ginning is a distinct business, and one gin willserve on an See also:average about See also:thirty farmers. Moveable gins were tried for a See also:time in some places; they were G1dnning dragged by See also:traction engines from See also:farm to farm, like an packing. threshing See also:machines in parts of See also:England, but the See also:plan proved uneconomical because, among other reasons, farmers were not prepared to meet the cost of providing facilities for storing their cotton. In addition to the small See also:country ginneries, large See also:modern ginneries have now been set up in all the leading See also:Southern See also:market towns. The cotton is pressed locally and afterwards " compressed " into a very small See also:compass. The bales are usually square, but cylindrical bales are becoming more See also:common, though their cost is greater. In the latter, the cotton is arranged in the See also:form of a rolled See also:sheet or " See also:lap." Owing to complaints of the careless packing of American cotton, See also:attention has been devoted of late to the improvement of the square See also:bale. See also:London used to be the See also:chief cotton See also:port of England, but See also:Liverpool had assumed undisputed leadership before the 19th See also:century began. Some arrivals have been diverted to See also:Manchester since the opening of the Manchester See also:ship Bnistt See also:canal; shipments through the canal from the 1st of entry, See also:September to the 3oth of See also:August in each See also:year for the See also:decade 1894–1895 to 1904–19o5 are appended—six to eight times as much is still unloaded at Liverpool. A Manchester cotton-importing See also:company was recently formed for increasing deliveries direct to Manchester, and establishing a " spot " market there, an end to which the Manchester Cotton Association had directed its efforts for some time past. The latter association was established at the end of 1894, with a membership of 265, in the interests of those spinners who desired importations direct to Manchester. The See also:objects of the association are officially stated to be: (1) to See also:frame suitable and authoritative forms of See also:contract, and to make rules and regulations for the proper conduct of the trade; (2) to supervise and facilitate the delivery of the importations of cotton at the Manchester docks to the various consignees; (3) to provide and maintain trustworthy See also:standards of See also:classification; (4) to procure and disseminate useful information on all subjects pertaining to the trade; (5) to See also:act in See also:concert with See also:chambers of See also:commerce and other bodies throughout the See also:world for mutual See also:protection; (6) to establish a market for cotton at Manchester. See also:Spinning members preponderate, but almost all the Manchester cotton merchants and cotton brokers have also joined the association. The importance of the See also:original spinners' See also:representation on the association is shown by the fact that they worked over 14,000,000 spindles: in See also:December 1905 the spindles represented by members had risen to nearly 20,000,000. Some 73,000 looms are also represented. As most of the See also:Lancashire cotton See also:mills See also:lie far from Manchester, direct importations to that city do not usually dispense with a " See also:hand-See also:ling," and frequently See also:save little or nothing in See also:freight rates, though in some cases the See also:economy derived from direct importation is considerable. One gain accruing to Lancashire from the Galveston, Tex. . New Orleans, La. Mobile, Ala. . Savannah, Ga. Charleston, S.C. . See also:Wilmington, N.0 . See also:Norfolk, Va. . See also:Baltimore, Md. New York . Canal, however, is that its competition has brought down railway rates. Fundamental alterations have been made in the structure of the leading cotton markets, and in methods of buying and selling cotton, in the last See also:hundred years. We shall not See also:attempt to trace the changes as they appeared in every market of importance, but shall confine our attention to one only, and that perhaps the most important of all, namely, the market at Liverpool. This selection of one market for detailed examination does not rob our See also:sketch of generality, as might at first be thought, since broadly the See also:history of the development of one market is the history of the development of all, and on the whole the economic explanation of the See also:evolution that has taken See also:place may be universalized.with less easy terms for See also:payment than were usual in Manchester, prevented any See also:great See also:numbers from departing from the beaten track. Cotton dealers up to this time had regularly financed the spinners, who were frequently men of little See also:capital, by allowing See also:long See also:credit, and had even employed them to spin on commission. As men of substance increased among the ranks of the spinners, the Manchester cotton dealers found it impossible to retard a See also:movement set on See also:foot by the prospects of such appreciable advantages. Ultimately many of the old Manchester cotton dealers became brokers for their old customers. In 1875 there were said to be upwards of too cotton dealers in Manchester, but from that time onward their members steadily declined. It is interesting to observe that a later development of transport between Manchester and Liverpool, namely, the Manchester Cotton market methods. Cotton landed at the Port of Manchester since the Canal was opened. (In thousand Bales.) The season is from the 1st of September to the 31st of August each year. See also:Jan. 1894, to Season Season Season Season Season Aug 31, 1894—1895. 1895—1896. 1896—1897. 1897-1898. 1898—1899 1894• American . 21 32 121 211 245 311 See also:Egyptian . 1.4 34 68 88 98 84 See also:East See also:Indian See also:West See also:African Total 22 66 189 299 344 395 Total American Crop' . 7,549 9,901 7,157 8,757 11,199 11,274 Total Egyptian Crop 657 615 703 783 872 745 (in bales of 71 cantars)2 . Season Season Season Season Season Season 1899—1900. 1900—1901. 1901—1902. 1902—1903. 1903—1904. 1904—1905. American . 415 442 421 478 365 552 Egyptian . 136 107 125 '45 148 183 East Indian .. .. .. 2.5 6 1.3 West African • 1 Total 551 549 S46 626 519 736 Total American Crop' . 9,436 10,383 19,68o 10,727 10,011 13,565
Total Egyptian Crop 868 723 849 778 867 846
(in bales of 7% cantars)2
Originally cotton was imported by the Liverpool dealer as an See also:agent for American firms or at his own See also:risk, and then sold by private treaty, See also:auction, or through brokers, to Manchester dealers, who retailed it to the spinners. This statement is, of course, only roughly correct. Some Manchester dealers imported themselves, and some spinners bought direct from Liverpool importers, but the rule was the arrangement first described. See also:Early in the 19th century it became customary for Manchester dealers and See also:Liver-See also:pool importers to carry on business with one another through representatives known as " buying " and " selling " brokers. About this time the See also:broker of cotton only began to specialize from the ranks of the brokers who dealt in all kinds of colonial produce. Previously there had not been enough business done in cotton to make it See also:worth any See also:person's while to devote himself to the buying and selling on commission of cotton only. The evolution of the distinct business of cotton broking is readily comprehensible when we remind ourselves that the requirements, as regards raw material, of all spinners are much alike generally, and that no spinner could afford to pay an See also:expert to devote himself entirely to purchasing cotton for his See also: ' The centralization of the cotton market in Liverpool fixed firmly the system of buying through brokers, for the Liverpool importer, or his broker, was in no sense a professional adviser to the spinners, informally pledged to advance the latter's interests, as the old Manchester dealers had been. The system was rendered comparatively inexpensive by the drop in commissions from r to % which had followed the See also:adoption of selling by See also:sample. This See also:custom of buying and selling through brokers continued unshaken until the laying of the See also:Atlantic See also:cable tempted selling brokers occasionally, and even some buying brokers, to buy direct from American factors by See also:telegraph and thus transform themselves into quasi-importers. The temptation was made the more difficult to resist by the development of " future " dealings. When the agents of the spinners, that is, the buying brokers, by becoming principals in some transactions, had acquired interests diametrically opposed to those of their customers, the consequent feeling of distrust among spinners gave See also:birth to the Cotton Buying Company, which, constituted originally of twenty to thrity limited cotton-spinning companies, represents to-See also:day nearly 6,000,000 spindles distributed among nearly one hundred firms. Its See also:object was to squeeze out some middlemen and economize for its members on brokerage. This company, it is said, helped to attract the brokers back to the spinners, and an informal understanding was arrived at that the buying broker should not figure both as agent and See also:principal in the same transaction. . Evolution of broking. By 1876 " forward " operations had become so vast and complicated that a cotton-clearing house had to be established cotton- to See also:deal with the confusing networks of debits and Clearing credits created by them. Its principle was exactly house, that of the clearing houses used by the See also:railways and the cotton See also:banks, the cancellation of indebtedness and See also:discharge See also:Bank and periodic simply of balances. The final See also:settlement of a " future " settlement contract involved usually a See also:crowd of persons, and the of "differ- passage of large sums of See also:money backwards and for- ences." wards, so that the amount of See also:cash required for circulation on the See also:exchange became unreasonably excessive and an annoying See also:waste of time was entailed. The cotton-clearing house substituted See also:book-keeping for the bulk of these payments. The See also:establishment of the Cotton Bank naturally followed. Now debts are discharged in the first instance by vouchers. Dealers pass their debit and credit vouchers into the Cotton Bank and pay or receive the balances which they owe or are entitled to. In See also:order to protect dealers against the losses due to the insolvency of those with whom they have had transactions, weekly settlements on the exchange have been made compulsory; between brokers and their clients they are also usual. At the settlement, every member of the exchange receives the " See also:differences " owing to him and pays those which he has incurred. Thus if a person holds See also:futures for ro,000 bales which stood at 5.20 on the last settlement day and now stand at 5.3o, and in the course of the previous See also:week has sold 5000 bales of " futures " at 5.1o, he receives 1o,000 X T%-d. on his old holding, and has to pay 5000 X i - d. on his sales, and therefore on See also:balance neither receives nor pays. Differences may be very large sums. The unit of a " future " being roo bales, an alteration in the See also:price of cotton of .ord. causes a difference on each unit of £2. Periodic settlements are obviously periodic tests of the solvency of dealers. If the test of the settlement were not frequently applied, speculators who were unfortunate would be tempted to plunge deeper until finally some became insolvent for large sums. As it is, the speculator who has incurred losses beyond his means tends to be discovered before his creditors are heavily involved. Settlement days fall on See also:Thursday, and the closing prices on the preceding See also:Monday are taken as the basis of the settlement. From all differences See also:interest at 5% is deducted for the time between settlement day and the tenth day of the second See also:month on which the " future " elapses, since settlement terms mean that money is paid in instalments before it is actually due. To the See also:admission of periodic settlements there was for a time vehement opposition on the ground that the See also:door would be opened to gambling on " differences." Hence at first, in 1882, they were used only by a See also:section of the market constituted of members who had voluntarily agreed to do business with one another upon these terms alone. By 1884, however, the advantages of " settlement terms " became so evident that they were adopted by the Cotton Association, at first for fortnightly periods, with the saving clause originally that they should not be compulsory. As soon as the clearing house was set up it became evident that " futures " were an impossibility away from it. At the same time " futures " were becoming an increasing See also:necessity to importers, because through " futures " alone could they hedge on their purchases of cotton, or buy when the market seemed favourable, and they were not prepared to assume heavy risks. Now from the clearing house importers were rigorously excluded, and on invoking the aid of " futures," therefore, they were penalized to the extent of See also:double broker's commission, one commission being charged on the See also:sale of the " futures " and one on their See also:purchase back. The importers, therefore, found it necessary to establish a See also:club of their own, the Liverpool Cotton Exchange, which they as rigorously guarded against brokers. The split in the market so caused was so damaging to both parties that a satisfactory arrangement was eventually agreed upon, and both institutions were absorbed in the Liverpool Cotton Association. A See also:condition of specialist dealers working to the public service is that they should not act in the dark. They must See also:watch demand, be able to form reasonable anticipations of its move-ments, and at the same time know the existing stocks of cotton; the sales taking place from day to day, and the best forecasts of the coming supplies. A See also:man accustomed to devote the whole of his time to the study of demand and supply in relation to cotton, after some years of experience, will be qualified ordinarily to form fairly accurate judgments of the prices to be expected. His success depends upon his ability to interpret rightly the facts and intangible signs with which he is brought in contact. The information at the disposal of dealers has steadily enlarged in See also:volume and improved in trustworthiness, though some of it is not yet invariably above suspicion, and the time elapsing between an event and the knowledge of it becoming common See also:property has been reduced to a fraction of what it used to be, in consequence chiefly of the telegraph and cables. All sales that take place on the Exchange must be returned. Estimates are published of the See also:area under cotton cultivation, and conditions of the American crop are issued by the American agricultural See also:bureau at the beginning of the months of See also:June, See also:July, August, September and See also:October of each year. To represent the See also:standard of perfect healthiness and exemption from injury due to See also:insects, or drought, or any other causes, one hundred is taken. The estimates for 1901 to 1905 are given, to illustrate their See also:variations: Year. June 1st. July 1st. Aug. 1st. See also:Sept. 1st. Oct. 1st. 1901 81.5 81.1 77.2 71'4 61.4 1902 95.1 84.7 81.9 64•o 58.3 1903 74'1 77.1 79.7 81.2 65.1 1904 83 88 91.6 84.1 75.8 1905 77.2 77 74.9 72.1 71.2 These estimates are the averages of See also:separate estimates which are published for the states of See also:North Carolina, See also:South Carolina, See also:Georgia, See also:Florida, See also:Alabama, See also:Mississippi, See also:Louisiana, See also:Texas, See also:Arkansas, See also:Tennessee. The See also:official figures are supplemented from time to time by numerous private forecasts, for instance those in " Neild's circular." Ellison, in his See also:work on the cotton trade of Great See also:Britain, traces in detail the increase in the volume of information collected and made public. At the See also:close of the 18th century there was a tacit understanding among brokers to supply one another with information. There were no printed circulars, except the monthly prices current of all kinds of produce, but brokers used to send particulars of business done to their customers in letters. These letters were the origin of circulars. Messrs See also:Ewart and Rutson pioneered in 18o5 by issuing a weekly See also:account of the sales and imports of cotton, and three years later three such circulars were on the market, though See also:Hope's alone was confined to cotton. For the first associated circular of any importance, the market had to wait until 1832. The issue of this circular by subscribing firms, on the basis of particulars collected by brokers appointed at a weekly See also:meeting, gave rise in 1841 to the Cotton Brokers' Association, to which the development of the market by the systematizing of See also:procedure is largely due. The See also:rest of the See also:tale may be told in Mr Ellison's own words: " Down to 1864 the leading firms continued to issue weekly market reports, but in that year the association commenced the publication of an associated circular. This was followed in the same year by the Daily Table of sales and imports, which in 1874 was succeeded by the See also:present more See also:complete Daily Circular. To these publications were at various times added the See also:annual See also:report, issued in December, the American crop report, issued in September, and the daily advices by cable from See also:America, issued every See also:morning." 1 We shall now enter upon a detailed See also:analysis of " forward " operations. The See also:term " futures " is used broadly and narrowly: broadly it is a generic term denoting " futures " in the Futures. narrow sense, and also " options " and " straddles ";
narrowly it implies merely contracts for future delivery at a price fixed in the present. Again we must distinguish between the " future " contracts for the delivery of a particular See also:kind of cotton, which may be entered into by spinners and their brokers, and are real purchases in the sense that the spinners want delivery of the cotton referred to, and the " futures," which always relate
1 The Cotton Trade of Great Britain, by See also: It is evident that the buying of cotton on the principles suggested would be calculated to cause great unsteadiness of prices, especially as cotton is not continuously forthcoming, but is produced periodically in harvests. Demands for yarn cannot be expected to come always at the most favourable time socially for the See also:distribution of the cotton. One way out of the difficulty is that the spinner should exercise his judgment and buy his raw material at what seems to him the most suitable times. But to this course there are three objections. The first is that spinners would be performing the two functions of See also:industrial management and cotton buying (together with others perhaps), and that in consequence the best industrial men would not necessarily be able to maintain their position in the trade because as buyers of cotton they might be unfortunate. The second is that spinners being required to give attention to two distinct classes of problems would be less likely as a See also:body to become complete masters of either. The third, which is not distinct in principle from the two preceding, is that such limited See also:speculation in cotton buying on the part of spinners worried with other matters would not be likely to steady the cotton market in any high degree. It may be assumed as desirable that the demand for cotton should be so spread as to keep its price as steady as possible—" steadiness " will be defined more exactly later—and that to this end it is essential that specialists should devote themselves to the task of spreading it. Such specialists have appeared in the cotton brokers and dealers who make their living out of bearing the risks connected with anticipating demand and supply in relation to cotton. To-day a spinner who is asked to quote for deliveries of yarn for, say, the next six months, may obtain from a broker quotations for deliveries of the cotton that he needs, in quantities as he needs it, for the next six months, and upon these quotations he may See also:base his own for yarn. If a spinner is pressed by a shipper to make quotations with refusal for two or three days to give time for business to be settled by cable, it is evidently not impossible for the spinner to shift the risk involved by getting in turn from his broker refusal quotations for cotton. But spinners do not try always to take the safest course. Now it is evident that brokers in turn require some means of passing on the risks that they are bearing, or some portion of them from one to another, or of sharing them with other Method of market experts, as they find themselves overburdened, distribut- ingrisks. and as their judgment of the situation changes. The means have been provided in the " futures " which circulate on the Cotton Exchange. The risks of anticipating are carried by those who create or hold " futures " without a hedge. In order to facilitate business, " futures " are all drawn in the same unit (too bales), and are all based on the same class of cotton, namely Upland cotton of middling grade of " no See also:staple " (i.e. with a fibre of about 4 in.) and of the worst growth. American cotton, we may remind the reader, is graded into a number of classes, both on the Liverpool and New York Ex- changes, and an attempt is made in each market to keep the grades as fixed as possible. But what, it may be inquired, is the value of " futures " relating to " middling " cotton to a broker whose contracts with spinners are not in " middling " cotton? The See also:answer is that though the ratios between the prices of the various grades alter, the prices of all of them move generally together, and that the " futures " of the Exchange at least provide a hedge against the latter movements. Other things being equal, the broker would be better off if he could hedge with equal ease against all his risks. But other things are not equal: the market would be more confusing and quotations would be complicated if " futures " were in use for all grades. We may now examine the exchange " futures " in minuter detail. They are quoted as a rule for about ten months ahead. Thus in See also:January the futures quoted will be January (technically termed " current," " present month " or charats/slioctfero " near month," " futures "), January-See also:February, ., futures... February-See also: I2.Ie April 6•o5 6.03 April-May 6.o5 6•o3 May-June 6•o5 6•o6, 5, 4, 3, 2, I, 2, 3 6.03 June-July . 6.o5 6.05, 2,13 6.03 July-August 6•o4 6.05, 4, 3, 2 6.03 Aug.-Sept. 5.98 5.99, 8, 6 5.97 Sept.-Oct. 5.34 5.85, 4 5.84 Oct.-Nov.. . . 5.76 5.77, 6 5.76 Nov.-Dec. 5.75 5.75, 41 5.75 Dec.-Jan. . 5'74 5.751 5.75 Jan.-Feb. . 5•.75 5.751 5.75 Late Business. Closing V Values. alues. April 6•o3 1 5.98 April-May 6.03 5'98 May-June 6•o3, 4, 3, 2, I, 2, o 5.99 June-July . 6.04, 3, 2 5.99 July-Aug. . 6•o3, 4, 3, 2, I, 0,1 I, 2,1 I, 0, 5.99, 6.o,1 5.99, 6•o, 5'99, 8 5.98 Aug.-Sept. 5.98,1 6, 5, 4, 5 5.92 Sept.-Oct. 5.84, 2 1 5.78 Oct.-Nov. 576,1 5,1 4, 3, 4, 3,1 2, I, 0 5.7o Nov.-Dec. 5.70 1 5.69 Dec.-Jan. . . . 5.72, I, 2 1 5.69 Jan.-Feb.. 5.69 1 Transactions of too bales only. Quotations. a committee according to their notions of the prices that would have been realized at the close of the market had business been done. The work of the committee is by no means See also:simple, as frequently very few transactions take place „psi is on or off. " in the kinds of cotton of which quotations are given. As regards " middling " American, the committee fixes " spot " by allowing so many " points on or off " present month futures. The variations of the gaps between " spot " and " present month futures " are somewhat mysterious, a See also:matter to which we shall recur. " Spot " quotations, the reader will now understand, are partly nominal, and must therefore be taken as affording a general See also:idea only of movements in the prices of cotton. While quoted " spot " remained low, the prices paid by most spinners for the See also:special kinds of cotton that they needed might rise. When the spinner has informed the dealer exactly what quality of cotton he needs, the dealer quotes so many " points on or off " the " future " quotations prevailing in Liverpool at the time of the purchase, which refer to Upland cotton of " middling grade,” of " no staple " and of the worst growth. Then, according as the spinner wants immediate delivery or delivery in some future month, he pays the price of current " futures," or of " futures " of the month in which he requires delivery, plus or minus the " points on or off " previously fixed. The considerations which determine the " points on or off " charged to the spinner may be taken roughly as three: 1. The grade, i.e. the See also:colour, cleanliness, &c., of the cotton. These are of importance to the spinner owing to the necessity of his cleaning machinery being adapted to the condition of the cotton. The See also:lower the grade the more elaborate and expensive is the machinery required to clean it, and consequently a spinner is willing to pay a certain amount extra for high grade cotton in order to save See also:expenditure on preparatory machinery. 2. The length of the staple. This determines to a large extent the fineness of the yarn which can be spun. Only the very lowest See also:counts can be spun from cotton with " no staple," that is, with a fibre of about three-quarters of an See also:inch. The longer the staple above the minimum the higher the counts that can be spun. 3. The growth. The best American cotton (See also:Sea See also:Island and Florida cotton are always considered quite apart) is grown in the Mississippi valley, the next best in Texas, and the poorest on the Uplands (i.e. in Georgia and Alabama). Considerations of growth determine to a great extent the hardness or softness, and strength or weakness, of the fibre, and thus, indirectly, whether the cotton is suitable for warp or weft. Some spinners cover their yarn contracts merely by buying " futures," but the cover thus provided is frequently most inadequate owing to variations in the "points on or off" for the particular cotton that they want. For example, after the See also:size of 1904–1905 crops became known, and the Americans attempted to hold back cotton, the " points on " for many qualities See also:rose consider-ably owing to artificial scarcity, though the price of cotton, as indicated by " spot," remained low. There is a tendency for cautious spinners in England to run no risks and See also:fix the prices of their yarn in accordance with quotations for actual cotton of specified qualities made by their brokers. We now return to exchange " future " trans-actions regarded as a genus. In addition to "futures" proper there are "options" and " straddles." Options are single "options" (" puts " or " calls ") or double (that unstdraddies." is, alternative "puts" or " calls"). The " put " is a right to sell cotton within some specified time in the future at a price fixed in the present, which need not, of course, be exercised. The " See also:call" is similar, but relates to buying. It will be evident that the "put" is a hedge against prices falling, and the " call " a hedge against their rising. The basis of " options " is the same as that of Egyptian Deliveries, fully good See also:fair (in 64ths of a penny). Yesterday's Business To-day's Closing Close. before See also:Noon. Business Values. Afternoon. April I0-I I .. .. I0-I May . t0-I2 9-62, 3, I0-0 10-2 1 10-I 9-63, 2, 10-0 June Io-II .. .. 10-0 July 10-9 9-60, I, 01 9-63,1 10-0,1 9-62 9-63, 2 Aug. . . . • I0-o .. .. 9-54 Sept.. . . 9-58 • • • • 9-48 Oct. . 9-24 .. 9-18 Nov.. 8-58 8-52,10, 49 .. 8-52 Dec. 8-5o 8-39 1 .. 8-42 Jan. 8-44 8-36 8-35 Egyptian futures, it will be observed, run out in single months. As the cost of dealing in " futures " is only one See also:shilling on each transaction for a member of the Cotton Exchange (the outsider is charged in addition a commission by his broker), it is not surprising that the transactions taking place in " futures " number See also:legion. The methods of dealing in cotton are very intricate, and it is necessary here to interpolate an explanation of the relations between the prices paid by spinners for cotton and the quoted " spot " prices. We begin by giving the official quotations of " spot," and statement of business done, published on the morning of the 19th of April 1906. Quotations. G.O. L.M. See also:Mid. G.M. F.G.M. M.F. American . 5.87 6.05 6.21 6.41 6.49 6.71 Mid Fair. Fair. Gd. Fair. Pernam . • 5.95 6'35 6.61 See also:Ceara . . 6.02 6.4o 6.62 Paraiba . . 5.94 6'32 6'56 Maceio . . 5.96n 6•34n 6.56n Fair. Gd. Fair. F.G.F. Good. See also:Fine. Egyptian See also:ben . 88 9 i Io; 11 IIg „ Upper — 9A 9s 9in See also:Ion Gd. Fr. F.G.F. Gd. G.F. Fine. S'fine. M. G. See also:Broach 17 51°w 5jgn 5 Bhownuggar . . 4ian 43611 4iun 41sn 5isn No. t Comra . . 43sn 41iin 4HHn 4iln 5isn See also:Bengal . . 3Ni 311 4k', 4h 4A 4i See also:Tinnevelly . 511 5A 5A Cotton See also:Ships arrived. Boston: See also:Canadian S. See also:Hamburg: See also:Iceland S. Sales. Speculation and Imports including Export. See also:Hull, &c. To-day. Previous To-day. Previous To-day. Week's this this Total. Week. Week. American. 6330 18,050 500 1500 17,665 53,684 Pernam, &c. 150 200 .. .. .. . . Paraiba, &c. . 46o 130 .. .. .. 2 Ceara and Arac'ty . 30 . . Egyptian 500 1200 .. .. 321 7,983 Peruvian . 46o 350 .. .. 32 32 W. I. and African . 5o 20 See also:Surat .. .. .. 3,664 3,829 See also:Madras . 50 20 Bengal 6o8 608 Sundries . Total. 8000 20,000 500 1500 22,290 66,138 8,000 500 Since Wednesday . 28,000 2000 Purchases for " speculation " remain in the market and therefore figure again in the sales. These official prices are Sometimes prices actually paid, and sometimes prices settled by 1 Transactions of too bales only. ordinary " futures," i.e. middling American cotton of " no staple," &c. Whether the purchaser of an See also:option gains or loses depends upon the price that he has paid in relation to the gain, if any, that he makes out of his See also:power. The price of options of course varies: that of double options is always highest, but they are little used. A " straddle " is a speculation on the difference between the prices of nearer and more distant futures, which varies from time to time, or on the difference between the prices of different kinds of cotton. An example will make the nature of the straddle clear. Suppose a dealer See also:buys April-May " futures " at 4d. a lb and sells the same quantity of May-June " futures " at 4'd. a lb. Then, whether prices rise or fall as a whole, he gains if the difference between the two prices be-comes less than a-d., but if it becomes more, he loses. On the other hand, had the dealer bought May-June at 4H-d. and sold April-May at 4d. he would have gained in the event of the difference increasing, and lost in the event of its decreasing. A question which has met with a good deal of attention is whether the speculation, which has been encouraged by the See also:Measures various arrangements made for facilitating operations of See also:stead). in " futures," has steadied or unsteadied prices. ness in Before we are prepared to answer this question we must prices. be furnished with a precise conception of what is meant by " steadiness " in prices. It is sometimes assumed that this is measured perfectly by the standard deviation,' which is obtained by taking the squares of the differences between the average and the individual prices, summing them and extracting the square See also:root. But obviously the information given by the standard deviation is limited: the frequency of movement cannot be inferred from it ;,two See also:series might have quite different average oscillations and yet the same standard deviation; and the range of movement, or spread of the variations from the average price (though allowed for in the standard deviation more than in the average See also:error), is hidden. Now frequency of movement, average daily price variation, and range of price movements are matters of fundamental importance to the public. Hence for See also:practical purposes we require several kinds of measurement of price movements, and it is impossible to weigh exactly the one against the other in respect of importance. Observe that an increase of the frequency of movement, or even of the average daily movement, is not necessarily objectionable, since changes are less harassing when they take place by small increments than when they are brought about by a few big variations. The difference between the highest and lowest price, we may observe, is a very imperfect indication of the range of movement (though, taken in See also:conjunction with the standard deviation, it is the best at our disposal), because either of the extreme prices might be accidental and quite out of relation to all others. An investigator must be on his guard against using quotations of this kind. There is also a difficulty about the frequency of movement, because as a rule many movements take place in one day the total over a See also:period sufficiently lengthy to yield general results is enormous, and many are unrecorded. In one day, for instance, when the See also:net drop was 33 points and the range of variation 59 points (namely, 8.45 to 7.86), 15o price fluctuations were recorded. However, the See also:count of frequency of movement from daily closing prices would probably afford a roughly satisfactory See also:comparative measurement in markets in which prices sometimes remain the same for a day or two together. The points just noted apply also to the average fluctuation and the standard deviation, but it is probable in these cases that daily or even weekly quotations would be sufficient to yield the information sought for with sufficient exactness for purposes of comparison. Now, supposing dealing to be confined to experts, what effects upon the course of prices would one expect from the Effect of specialism of the cotton market and improved facilities specula- for dealing, on the assumption that dealers were See also:Lion on governed wholly in their actions by the course of prices steadiness and never tried to manipulate them? The frequency ofprigas. of movement ought to increase because the market 'See See also:article on " Dealings in Futures in the Cotton Market," in the See also:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. 1xix, p. 325.would become more sensitive, but, other things being equal, the range of movement ought to diminish, and ultimately the average daily movement also, though at first the latter might not fall appreciably if, indeed, it did not rise, owing to the increased frequency of movement. These results would prove beneficial to the community. May we infer deductively that they have been attained because of the increase of speculative transactions? By no means, and for two reasons. In the first place, the public speculates to a large extent on the cotton exchange, and its speculation (taken as a whole) is sheer gambling. But, it may be replied, the outsiders, being as a whole complef See also:ely ignorant of the forces at work, so that they cannot form rational anticipations, cannot have any effect either way: by the See also:law of See also:chance their influences would neutralize one another. This would be so if See also:people acted independently and without guidance, but actually they are sometimes misled by published See also:advice and movements in the market intended to deceive them, and, even when they are not, they watch each other's attitudes and tend to act as a crowd. The mass becomes unduly sanguine or weakly surrenders to panic. Hence the law of error does not apply, and speculation by the public may unsteady prices. Again, dealers sometimes try to create corners and form powerful syndicates for that purpose: the dealing See also:syndicate of late years has become a force to be reckoned with. Many large-scale operations are entered into, not because prices are relatively high or low, but to make them high or low for ulterior purposes; i.e. the market is deliberately " bulled or beared." In consequence of this tampering with the market no certainty can be See also:felt about the effect even of expert dealing. What, then, we may .profitably inquire next, has actually happened to. price movements generally as the market has See also:developed? This question can readily be answered as regards the past See also:forty years or so, for which material Movement of prices. rices. has been collected, but the reader must See also:bear in mind that if improvement can be traced it cannot logically be attributed unhesitatingly to the perfecting of the machinery of speculation, whereby a larger use has been made of " futures," since many other economic changes have taken place concomitantly and they may have wrought the See also:major effect. The world may be steadying and steeling its nerves. Now, turning to the actual effects, we discover somewhat remarkable facts. Expressed both absolutely and as percentages of the price averaged from the 1st of October to the 31st of July, the range of movement, standard deviation, and mean weekly movement calculated between the times mentioned above (October 1st to July 31st), after diminishing significantly for some years after the later 'sixties, have risen appreciably on the whole of late years. The figures in the table below are from the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, June 1906: quotations for August and September were omitted to avoid the transition movements between the price levels of two crops. In this table measurements of price movements stated both absolutely and as percentages of price levels are given, because authorities have expressed doubts as to whether the former or the latter might be expected to remain See also:constant, other things being equal; when price rose. On the one hand, it is argued that speculators are affected only by the absolute variations in price, while on the other hand it is contended that a movement of one " point," say, is less influential when the price is about 8d. than when it is about 4d. In response to the first view it might be argued that if speculators are influenced only by the differences for which they become liable, a " point " movement would have a somewhat slighter effect on their See also:action, other things being equal, when price was high, because, supplies being relatively See also:short, each of them would tend to be engaged in a smaller volume of transactions measured in quantity of cotton, than when supplies were larger. But the point need not be discussed further here, since both percentage and absolute indices of unsteadiness have risen of late years. The explanation of this change in the direction of indices of steadiness cannot be proved to consist in any peculiarity in the supplies of See also:recent years. But the dealing syndicate has probably been of late more common and more powerful—that is, the syndicate which exists to make profits out Expressed as Percentage of Avera (1st Oct. to 31st July) Weeekly Prices. Mean Mean Year. Average Lowest Highest Range of Standard Weekly Range of Standard \]t/ ekly Price. Price. Price. Movement. Deviation. Movement. Movement. Deviation. Movement. d. d. d. d. d. d. d. d. d. 1867-1868 91 71 121 51 1'74 0.31 57'1 18.1 3.22 1868-1869 111 101 121 24 0.58 0.19 18.5 5.0 1.65 1869-1870 1I} 74 I21 41 0'92 0'23 41"6 8-3 2.07. 187o-1871 81 7A 9 8 2 0'65 0.17 24.6 8•o 2.09 1871-1872 101 91 Ir1 24 0.75 0.15 19.5 6"9 1.38 1872-1873 91 81 I016s IA 0.53 0.10 16.9 5'7 1"08 1873-1874 it 71 91 11 0.32 0.10 16 5 3.9 1.20 1874-1875 714 618 8 1s 0.26 0.07 13"8 3"4 o.89 1875-1876 61 51 71 1} 0.37 o•o8 19.2 5"7 1.23 1876-1877 6 s 51 7 14 0.33 0.11 17.8 5'2 1.74 1877-1878 61 51 6?s I18 0.21 0.07 11"0 3.4 1.12 1878-1879 6 411 7A 24 0'67 0'13 37'5 11.2 2.17 1879-1880 7 618. 71 If1 0.24 0.12 10.7 3"4 1.71 ,88o-1881 6 % 51 618 I18 0'34 o•o8 16.8 5.4 1.27 1881-1882 61 61 7128 0.15 0.07 10.4 2.3 1.06 1882-1883 511 5178 61 IA 0.31 0'07 20'4 5'3 1.20 1883-1884, 6114 51 6'$ 18 0.20 o•o8 11.3 3.3 1.32 1884-1885 518 5A 64 18 0'19 0.07 11'8 3'3 1.20 1885-1886 5* 41 5A 1 0'18 0.07 14.5 3'5 1.35 1886-1887 5A 5} 6 4 0.28 0.05 16.1 5.2 0.92 1887-1888 51 5111 511 0'14 0.05 9.1 2.5 0.91 1888-1889 51 516a 6, 0.23 o .o6 15"0 4"0 1.04 1889-1890 64 5i' 614 * 0.34 0"08 18.4 5`5 1.31 1890-1891 5 41 51 11 0.36 0'06 27'5 7.2 1.20 1891-1892 41 3A 418 11 0.36 0.07 33.3 8-7 1.70 1892-1893 41 41 511 I, 0'37 0'09 25'0 7'8 1.89 1893-1894 41 318 411 18 0.22 0.04 18.4 5'2 0.94 1894-1895 31 211* 31 892 0.30 0.06 26.9 8.9 1.79 1895-1896 41 31 418 0.28 0.07 25.0 6.4 1.60 1896-1897 41 318 411 18 0.22 0.07 21.6 5.2 1"67 1897-1898 3r1 3A 318 1 0.18 0.05 18.5 5'3 1.47 1898-1899 3a92 3 311 18 0.15 0.04 14.3 4.6 1.22 1899-1900 418 318 6718 1as 8 0.63 0.12 43.6 12.8 2.48 1900-1901 54 4A 61 21 0.53 0.13 42.7 10.3 2.54 1901-1902 41 4892 511 Ids 0.24 0.09 22.4 5.0 1.89 1902-1903 5'35 4.42 7.12 2.70 0.78 0.13 50'5 14.6 2.43 1903-1904 7.04 5.78 8.92 3.14 0.91 0.33 44.4 12.9 4"83 1904-1905 4.86 3.63 6.01 2.38 0.71 0.15 48.9 14.6 3.09 of manipulating the market-and the public has probably been speculating increasingly. It is plausible, then, to suppose that the dealing syndicate primarily, and the speculations of the public secondarily (secondarily, because in all likelihood the effect of its operation would be much less in magnitude), may account for the change. "Futures" are not used, in all markets-for instance, they are not to be found at See also:Bremen; and in those in which they are used
Price they See also:play parts of different prominence-at See also:Havre,
move- for instance, the transactions in "futures" are of ments in incomparably less relative importance than they are at different Liverpool. But it is futile to seek the effect of much markets. dealing in " futures" in the differences between price movements in the various markets, because (I) demand expresses itself in different ways-in See also:Germany, for example, spinners buy to hold large stocks-and (2) the markets are in telegraphic communication, so that their price movements are kept parallel. Mr See also: Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Nov.i8th,189S . . 4.34 27 28 281 291 31 32 33 •• •• •• 27 27 Jan. 18th, 1899 . . 3.8 62 61 71 81 91 101 111 12 121 . . .. 61 Sept. 14th, 1899 . . 3.36 241 25 251 26 27 .. . . 30 28 261 25 242 correlations have not been worked out? It is worthy of See also:note that Liverpool "futures" are largely used for hedging by See also:continental cotton dealers. 1 Journal of the Statistical Society, 1906. s See See also:paper in the Journal of the Statistical Society for June 1906."bearing" it in the last case. A closer examination will reveal further that the magnitude of these gaps varies a great deal; and ' Attempts to explain them were made in an article in the Economic Journal in December 1904, and in the paper already referred to read to the Royal Statistical Society. if the "futures" do "bear" and "See also:bull," as has been supposed, they probably See also:influence these magnitudes. It might be thought that the "futures" of different months, being substitutes in proportion to their temporal proximity to one another, should vary together exactly; but it would seem to be a sufficient reply that as they are not perfect substitutes they are in some slight degree See also:independent variables. The "spot" market might be judged generally as too high, in view of crops and the probable normal demand of the year, but it might not therefore drop immediately, owing partly to the pressure of demand that must be satisfied instantaneously. "Current futures" would be affected more than "spot" by this impression as to the relation of "spot" to a conceived normal price for the year, and they might therefore be expected to drop more than "spot" when this impression was at all widely entertained. But the fall of "current futures" would be checked by the demands that must be satisfied in the near future. Probably the prices of the more distant "futures" are determined in a higher degree by far-reaching See also:imagination than the prices of nearer futures. This explains what has been called above the unintentional "bearing" of "spot" by "futures." And it is immediately evident that the deliberate "bear" See also:works by selling "futures," and that the effect of his sales is propagated to "spot." These statements are equally true of "bulling." The influence of expectations of the new crop on "futures" running into the new crop is See also:plain on inspection; but owing to the See also:gap between the two crop years it would be astonishing if "futures" against which cotton from a new crop could be delivered were not appreciably independent of "spot" at the'time of their quotation. However, it is noticeable that they are still so closely See also:bound up with "futures" culminating in the old crop year that the daily movements of the former are closely correlated with those of the latter. Concluding cautiously, we may admit the See also:probability of the relations between near and distant "futures" and "spot" (even in respect of "futures" running out in the same crop year) indicating some-times at least the intentional or unintentional "bulling" or "bearing" or "spot" by "futures." But nothing has yet been proved from these facts as to the effect "futures" are having upon the steadiness of prices. In the case of any crop year, if the relations which are suggested as indicating the "bulling" work of "futures" usually corresponded with "spot" prices being below the normal price of the crop year, or of what was See also:left of the crop year, while the relations which are suggested to indicate the "bearing" work of "futures" on the whole corresponded with a relatively abnormal height of "spot," it would be a legitimate inference that "futures" were tending to smooth prices. However, it is made clear as the result of an elaborate examination that the generality of these correspondences cannot be affirmed.' The outcome of the whole matter is that the investigator is still baffled in his attempt to discover what effect the use of "futures" is having upon prices to-day. The See also:sole piece of See also:evidence, from which probable conclusions may be drawn, is that three separate measurements of price fluctuations over some forty years reveal a growing unsteadiness of late, whether they be expressed absolutely or as percentages of price. The uneasiness caused by the excessive dependence of Great Britain upon the United States for cotton, coupled with the Recent belief that shortages of supply are more frequent than attempts they ought to be, and the fear that diminishing returns to open may operate in America, occasioned the formation in up new_ England of the See also:British Cotton Growing Association on ti itton ds the 12th of June 1902. The proportions of England's supplies drawn from different See also:fields is indicated in the table below. British dependence on American supplies is greater even than that of the See also:continent of See also:Europe, for See also:Russia possesses some See also:internal supplies, and more Indian cotton is used in continental countries than in England. ' See the paper already mentioned in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society for June 1906, where the several points noticed briefly above are fully discussed. Average Quantities of Raw Cotton imported Annually into the United See also:Kingdom from the following Countries in the Periods 1896–z9oo and 1901-1904. Country. 1896-1900. 1901-1904. Million lb. Million lb. United States . 1436 1424 See also:Brazil 13.8 31'5 See also:Peru 8.5 8.6 See also:Chile (including the Pacific See also:coast of See also:Patagonia) . . . .8 2.2 See also:Venezuela and See also:Republic of See also:Colombia . .5 •5 British West Indies and British See also:Guiana •3 •6 See also:Turkey (See also:European and See also:Asiatic) .5 1.1 See also:Egypt 295.7 314.4 British possessions in the East Indies . 40• 61 See also:Australasia .035 .041 All other countries . 2.3 3.8 Total 1800 1849 Re-exported 223 26o The annual average shipments from Bombay to the European continent and to Great Britain in 1900-1904 were as follows: To the continent . . 600 bales of 32 cwt. To Great Britain . . 50 At the end of the 18th century the bulk of British cotton was obtained from the West Indies. Approximately the supplies were as follows in million lb: British West Indies . 6.6 See also:French and See also:Spanish settlements . 6 Dutch settlements . I.7 Portuguese „ . 2.5 East Indies , See also:Smyrna or Turkey The British Cotton Growing Association works under the See also:sanction of a royal See also:charter and has met with valuable official support. See also:Financial assistance and assurances as to sales and prices have been given liberally by the association where they are needed; ginning and buying centres have been established; experts have been engaged to distribute See also:seed and afford instruction; and some See also:land has been acquired for working under the direct management of the association. The governments of some colonies have aided the efforts of the association. See also:Professor See also:Wyndham See also:Dunstan of the Imperial See also:Institute, on a reference from the See also:government, made favourable reports as to the possibilities of extending cotton cultivation. The results may be seen in the approximate estimates below of cotton grown more or less directly under the auspices of the association. See also:Pales of 400 lb. 1903. 1904. 1905. 1906. See also:Gambia . 50 loo 300 Sierra Leone 50 loo 200 250 See also:Gold Coast . 50 15o 200 250 See also:Lagos 500 2,000 3,200 6,300 See also:Nigeria loo 200 65o 1,200 West See also:Africa, 750 2,550 4,550 8,000 West Indies. 1,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 East Africa . 150 85o 2,000 3,500 See also:Sind .. 500 2,000 Sundries .. too 250 500 Total . I ,900 5, 500 11,300 20,000 Approximate value £29,000 £75,000 £150,000 £270,000 In the West Indies results are most favourable, both as regards quantity and quality of the crops. West Indian grown cotton has realized even higher prices than American grown Sea Island. In West Africa also prospects appear encouraging. In Sierra Leone little success has been met with, but on the Gold Coast some cotton better than middling American has been grown, and the association has concluded an agreement with the government for an See also:extension of its work. In Lagos crops increased rapidly. The cotton is almost entirely grown by natives in small patches See also:round their villages, and generally it . •I has sold for about the same price as middling American, though some of it realized as much as 25 to 30 "points on." The quality in greatest demand in England, it should be observed, is worth about ;d. to Id. per lb. above middling American. In Southern Nigeria the association has met with only slight success; in See also:Northern Nigeria, a working arrangement was entered into with the See also:Niger Company, and a small ginning establishment was set to work in February 1906. In British Central Africa, the results on the whole have not been satisfactory. Though planters who confined their efforts to the lower lying grounds—of which there is a fairly large See also:tract—succeeded, all the cotton planted on the See also:highlands proved more or less a failure. In See also:Uganda the association took no steps, but activity in cotton-growing is not unknown, and some good cotton is being produced. Arrangements were concluded with the British South Africa Company for the formation of a small syndicate for working in See also:Rhodesia. The general movement for the extension of cotton cultivation was welcomed by the See also:International See also:Congress of representatives of See also:master cotton spinners and manufacturers' associations at the meeting at See also:Zurich in May 1904. It placed on See also:record "its cordial appreciation of the efforts of those governments and institutions which have already supported cotton-growing in their respective colonies." England is pre-eminent but not alone in the matter. Germany and See also:France, and in a less degree See also:Belgium, See also:Portugal and See also:Italy, have taken some steps. Russia, too, is developing her internal supplies. The advantages that might accrue from the wider distribution of cotton-growing are mainly fourfold. (I) Greater See also:elasticity of supply might be caused. It is probably easier to extend the area under cotton rapidly when crops are raised from many places in proximity to other crops than when the mass of the cotton is obtained from a few highly specialized districts. Possibly the advantages of specialism might be retained and yet the elasticity of supply be enhanced. (2) Greater stability of crops in See also:pro-portion to area Cultivated is hoped for. The eggs are now too much in one See also:basket, and local disease, or See also:bad See also:weather, or some other misfortune, may diminish by serious percentages the, supplies anticipated. Were there numerous important centres the bad See also:fortune of one would be more adequately offset by the good fortune of another. (3) Desirable variations in the raw material might conceivably eventuate from the introduction of cotton to spots in the globe where its growth was previously unknown or little regarded. The results of the enterprise of Mehemet See also:Ali and Jumel in Egypt prove such an idea to be not altogether fanciful, and warn us also against hastily arguing that the plan is too artificial to succeed on a large scale. Without the active intervention of a strong body of interested parties it is sometimes unlikely that new See also:industries will be undertaken even in places well suited for them. (4) Lastly, the countries to which cotton-growing is carried should gain in prosperity. The general difficulties in the way of the British Cotton Growing Association are many and will be sufficiently evident. Lessons of value may be learnt from the See also:fate of similar The Cotton work undertaken by the Cotton Supply Association, Supply As- sociation. which was instituted in April 1857• According to its fifth report, it originated " in the prospective fears of a portion of the trade that some dire calamity must inevitably, sooner or later, overtake the cotton manufacture of Lancashire, whose vast superstructure had so long rested upon the treacherous See also:foundation of restricted slave labour as the See also:main source of supply for its raw material."' Its methods were stated to be: " To afford information to every country capable of producing cotton, both by the See also:diffusion of printed directions for its cultivation, and sending competent teachers of cotton planting and cleaning, and by direct communication with See also:Christian missionaries whose aid and co - operation it solicits; to supply, gratuitously, in the first instance, the best seeds to natives in every part of the world who are willing to receive them; to give prizes for the extended cultivation of cotton; and The Association published a weekly paper known as The Cotton Supply Reporter.to lend gins and improved machines for cleaning and preparing cotton." Though the association brought about an extension and improvement of the Indian crop, in which result it was enormously assisted by the high prices consequent upon the American Civil War, it sank after a few years into obscurity, and soon passed out of existence altogether, while the effects of its work dwindled finally into insignificance. Much the same had been the ultimate outcome of the spasmodic attempt of the British government to bring about the introduction of cotton to See also:news districts, after it had been pressed to take some action a few years See also:prior to the formation of the Cotton Supply Association. A Mr Clegg, who after-wards interested himself keenly in the activities of the Cotton Supply Association reported that in the course of a tour in 1855 through the Eastern countries bordering on the Mediterranean he had found none of the gins presented by the British government at work or workable. 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